Friday, June 29, 2012

Debt crisis: live

09.24 David Cameron has spoken to the BBC on his way back in to the summit in Brussels this morning, saying that "important steps forward" were taken last night. He says more was needed for short term stability.

EU leaders will have filled up on strong coffee over breakfast - talks ended at 4.30 this morning after dragging on for more than 13 hours.

09.18 Some contradictory statements are emerging this morning. Angela Merkel says there will still be conditions to meet for countries which need bank recapitalisation, and that to be involved in the bond-buying programme there will still be troika checks. But Italy's PM Mario Monti says those who seek EFSF or ESM aid won't need to have troika oversight. He's also added that Italy doesn't intend to seek such help "at this time".

09.11 Fabrizio Gora tweets a picture of Libero's front page this morning, which is unlikely to please the German chancellor.

08.55 They say bad news comes in threes, and that'll ring true for Angela Merkel this morning. First Germany was knocked out of Euro 2012, then she was forced to back down at the EU summit and now German retail sales have dropped for a second month running in May. Sales unexpectedly fell 0.3pc from April.

08.34 Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, brings us her views on the EU summit deal:

QuoteEurozone authorities have attempted to break the toxic link between banks and sovereigns. The move on Spain is extremely positive in our view. Although it doesn?t irradiate the problem of bad loans on Spain?s banks? balance sheets it does mean that banking debt won?t clog up Spain?s sovereign balance sheet that was relatively healthy before the banks started to fail. This should reduce Spain?s borrowing costs in the short to medium term.

The move on scrapping credit seniority for bailout loans to Spain?s banks is a very positive move to us as it encourages the private sector to invest in Spain and Italy?s sovereign debt.

But there are also problems, she warns:

QuoteThe EFSF/ESM rescue funds only have ?500bn of available capital, yet the total liabilities on Spain?s and Italy?s balance sheets? top ?2.4 trillion... This could curb the market?s enthusiasm as we haven?t heard any signs that these bailout funds will be topped up.

08.18 European markets have surged in early trade after the news from the EU summit just a few hours ago. Futures were pointing to climbs across the board, apart from in Germany and France - but in the event even they've decided to join the rally.

The FTSE 100 has climbed 1.74pc, the DAX is up 2.39pc and the CAC has gained 2.86pc. Spain's IBEX is 4.05pc higher and Italy's FTSE MIB is up 3.07pc.

08.01 The fake Angela Merkel has a knack for summing up the situation with a single tweet, and doesn't disappoint this morning.

07.30 European Council chairman Herman Van Rompuy seems relieved that a deal has been done. There were some worrying moments during last night's stand-off between Spain and Italy and Germany.

He said the aim was to create a supervisory mechanism for eurozone banks involving the European Central Bank to break the "vicious circle" of dependence between banks and sovereign governments.

QuoteWe are opening the possibility to countries that are well behaving to make use of financial stability instruments in order to reassure markets and to get again some stability around some of the sovereign bonds of our member states. The aim is of course to make the euro an irreversible project.

07.15 Just as well for France that EU leaders have agreed a ?120bn growth pact, as the figures out today show first quarter growth stalled.

National statistics agency INSEE says its final estimate of GDP was unchanged quarter-on-quarter, confirming an initial estimate published last month. The eurozone's second largest economy grew just 0.1pc in the fourth quarter.

07.05 Yields on 10-year Spanish and Italian bonds fell to 6.48pc and 5.87pc respectively in early trading, after eurozone leaders agreed a plan to allow rescue funds to be used to stabilise debt markets and directly recapitalise banks. One trader said:

QuoteIt's definitely risk on for now, but it looks like Germany have been rather backed into a corner and we'll have to see what comes out today.

German 10-year bond yields rose 10 basis points to 1.61pc.

06.45 Mario Monti, the Italian Prime Minister, celebrated the agreement as a ?very important deal for the future of the EU and the eurozone?. Bruno Waterfield writes:

QuoteHe could not resist reminding Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, that Italy had also won on the football pitch, by defeating Germany two goals to one for a place in the finals of the European Championship.

Here is a summary of what they agreed:

? Spanish banks will be recapitalised directly by allowing a ?100bn EU bailout to be transferred off Spain?s balance sheet after the European Central Bank takes over as the single currency?s banking supervisor at the end of the year.

? Relief for Spain was accompanied by a pledge to begin purchases of Italian bonds using EU bailout funds to reduce Italy?s borrowing costs with a lighter set of conditions, based on meeting Brussels fiscal targets rather than intrusive IMF oversight.

? A promise was also made to ?examine the situation of the Irish financial sector? offering possible relief to Ireland by relieving the government balance sheet debt burden.

? The Spanish bank bailout, to be agreed on 9 July, will initially use the euro?s European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) before it is transferred into a new permanent fund later this year.

06.40 Despite apparent market optimism, some scepticism remains. Jackson Wong, vice president at Tanrich Securities in Hong Kong. said:

QuoteWe don't expect a magical formula that can solve the problem right out from the EU summit. However, if we can see the stances from all the leaders, especially from Germany - that they are heading in the right direction - I think going forward, it should be OK.


Euro rise in Asian trading on news of the eurozone agreement. Graph: Bloomberg

06.38 The euro spiked against the dollar after news of the deal, and Asian stock markets rose sharply. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.4pc and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 2.2pc.

However, while the shares in London, Italy and Spain are expected to rise when market open on Friday, those in Germany and France look set to fall.

06.35 So, Monti and Rajoy got their way, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel retreating. Bruno Waterfield in Brussels sums it up succinctly, but with a warning:

Ambushed - she always gets her revenge in the end, as Sarko discovered.

06.34 It looks like those late night summits are back. Eurozone leaders agreed early this morning to take emergency action to bring down Italy's and Spain's spiralling borrowing costs and to create a single supervisory body for eurozone banks by the end of this year, a first step towards a European banking union.

It followed a tense first day at the EU summit, with Italian prime minister Mario Monti and his Spanish counterpart, Mariano Rajoy, refusing to sign off on a ?120bn growth package until EU paymaster Germany approved short-term measures to ease their cost of credit.

06.30 Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the European debt crisis.

Debt crisis live: archive

Source: http://telegraph.feedsportal.com/c/32726/f/564430/s/20d57641/l/0L0Stelegraph0O0Cfinance0Cdebt0Ecrisis0Elive0C93638680CDebt0Ecrisis0Elive0Bhtml/story01.htm

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